XRP pushed back by RLUSD expansion, will the $1 collapse become a reality?

▲ XRP, Wall Street/AI-generated image ©

An analysis suggests that XRP's medium-to-long-term outlook is wavering as expectations for bank adoption decline and stablecoins emerge as alternatives.

According to crypto media outlet Watcher.Guru on April 21 (local time), some analysts are presenting a pessimistic outlook, suggesting that XRP (Ripple) could fall below $1 by 2031. XRP is currently trading around $1.43, more than 60% lower than its July 2025 peak.

The core reason behind this outlook is the stagnation in bank adoption. XRP built its growth story on the expectation that it would be used as a bridge asset in international remittances, leading to increased demand. However, its actual price has not been correlated with this expansion. Some models interpret this not as a short-term delay but as a structural divergence.

In particular, the rise of Ripple's own stablecoin, RLUSD, is cited as a direct factor shaking XRP's position. RLUSD is expanding institutional adoption based on its dollar-pegged stability and is considered a more favorable option for banks that prefer stable payment methods over volatile assets.

As a result, there are analyses suggesting that institutional capital flows, previously expected to go into XRP, are now shifting to RLUSD. Some in the market are reinforcing long-term bearish scenarios, citing the weakening of XRP's core demand logic.

Meanwhile, some optimistic forecasts suggest XRP could rise to $25, but this would require a significantly higher level of liquidity and expanded institutional adoption simultaneously than currently observed. The market is watching to see if XRP can overcome its structural limitations or if it will be pushed aside by alternative assets, leading to a long-term bearish trend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*