"590% Surge vs Realistic $2"...XRP's 2026 Rebound Scenarios Diverge

▲ XRP/AI-generated image ©

Market forecasts are extremely divided on whether XRP (Ripple), which lost its direction after a sharp decline, can return to an upward trajectory.

According to cryptocurrency media Watcher.Guru on April 25 (local time), XRP is currently trading at around $1.42-$1.45, approximately 60% down from its all-time high of $3.65 recorded in July 2025. This decline is analyzed as a result of the overall weakness in the cryptocurrency market combined with XRP's own structural issues.

There are clear structural factors behind the decline. The Ripple payment network does not necessarily require the use of XRP, and fiat-based payments are also possible. Furthermore, the stablecoin RLUSD issued by Ripple can act as a bridge within the same network, potentially replacing some direct demand for XRP, which also acts as a burden. Additionally, the structure where Ripple holds approximately 38 billion out of a total supply of 100 billion is also cited as a factor that ties the price to the company's performance.

Nevertheless, bullish sentiment still exists. Some traders argue that XRP could reach $10 by the summer of 2026. This would require an increase of approximately 590% from the current price. However, institutional investors have a more conservative view. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered set a target price of $2.80 for 2026, followed by $7 in 2027 and $12.60 in 2028. He analyzed that the recovery path depends more on an improved macroeconomic environment than on XRP's own issues.

Model-based forecasts show a similar trend. The expected price range for XRP in 2026 is presented as $1.37-$2.20, with an average price of approximately $1.67. Particularly, September and October were highlighted as short-term rebound periods, with potential increases of approximately 48% and 55% respectively.

On-chain data shows some positive signals. Large wallets have accumulated approximately 360 million XRP over the past week, and a total of $55.39 million has flowed into XRP spot ETFs for 7 consecutive days. This simultaneous inflow of whale and institutional funds is rare, and it is evaluated as a factor supporting mid-to-long-term upward expectations.

Ultimately, a short-term breakthrough to $10 is unlikely, but a recovery to the $2-$3 range is a sufficiently plausible scenario based on data analysis. The market sentiment seems to favor 'gradual recovery' rather than excessive expectations.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*