"FOMC Divides Direction"...Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Break $80,000 vs. Fall to $66,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image

The outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting and the earnings announcements of major companies have emerged as critical variables that could change the technical trend of Bitcoin (BTC).

According to a report by virtual asset media CoinGape on April 28 (local time), Jonathan Landin, a senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, diagnosed that this FOMC decision will define Bitcoin's next major move. The market is currently experiencing high tension ahead of the release of macroeconomic data, including the preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. In particular, the earnings announcements of tech giants such as Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to directly impact risk asset sentiment.

A positive sign is the improving liquidity environment. Landin analyzed that market conditions, such as liquidity growth turning positive and volatility compressing, have begun to align for the first time since the October 2025 peak. Liquidity can only act as a market tailwind when supported by growth. While it is uncertain whether this alignment will be maintained, Bitcoin's rebound above $79,000 last weekend has indeed raised expectations for a return to a bullish market.

However, macroeconomic uncertainties still pose a risk of price decline. If the unstable ceasefire between the US and Iran breaks, and oil prices soar to $115 per barrel, inflation could reignite. If the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a hawkish hold stance at this meeting and resets the probability of interest rate cuts, it would act as a negative factor for Bitcoin's price. If any of the liquidity conditions break down, the downtrend that has continued since October last year cannot be ruled out.

From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $79,000 zone, it will enter a resistance zone between $80,000 and $85,000. However, analyst Landin advised caution as trading volume remains thin and a bearish divergence is forming in the Relative Strength Index. While the price is rising, the index is falling as it approaches the resistance level. Veteran trader Peter Brandt expects Bitcoin to reach new highs in the short term but believes it will be difficult to reach $250,000 by the end of this year.

For Bitcoin to continue a significant rally, the FOMC's decision must act as a catalyst to stimulate risk asset preference. If it fails to break the $80,000 resistance, it will retest the $70,000 support level. Afterward, the low recorded at the end of March, around $66,000, is expected to be the next point of interest. Market participants are closely watching whether the macroeconomic indicators to be announced this week can lead to a long-term trend reversal for Bitcoin.

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