Sideways until late May? This is how Bitcoin's direction is decided

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Godasol

Bitcoin is showing a rebound, but an AI model predicts a 'sideways market' instead of a clear uptrend until late May, lowering market expectations.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on May 1 (local time), an AI price prediction model projected Bitcoin (BTC) to trade at approximately $76,199 by May 31. This represents a decline of about 1.43% compared to the benchmark price of $77,306 at the time of prediction, suggesting a range-bound movement with limited volatility rather than a sharp drop.

This prediction was calculated by comprehensively analyzing indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving averages, Fibonacci retracement, ETF fund flows, derivatives liquidation data, market sentiment, and Bitcoin dominance. There were also model variations, with the most optimistic scenario indicating a 4.07% rise and the most pessimistic scenario pointing to a 7.45% fall.

The market environment is also close to an 'ambiguous equilibrium state'. Bitcoin has risen by 1.34% in the last 24 hours to around $77,306, but this is not enough to be considered a strong breakout signal. However, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $14.76 million on April 30, following three consecutive days of net outflows totaling approximately $500 million, indicating some easing of selling pressure.

The derivatives market also shows a stable trend. According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidation volume decreased by 65.75% over 24 hours to $49.29 million. This means that the risk of a sharp decline due to forced liquidations has decreased, suggesting that the recent rebound is forming on a more stable foundation.

Technically, $76,118 (Fibonacci 61.8% level) acts as a key support level. If this level is maintained, an attempt to re-break $77,411 is possible, but a break below could open up the possibility of a correction to $75,000. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance rose to 60.16%, indicating a strengthened defensive flow of funds moving from altcoins to Bitcoin. Market sentiment also remains in the fear zone (43), maintaining a wait-and-see attitude rather than aggressive buying.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*