65,000~70,000 Dollars…Bitcoin Range Targeted by Institutions

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image ©

With Bitcoin holding above $75,000, an analysis suggests that there is a separate 'real bottom signal' indicating the actual inflow of institutional funds.

According to cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist on May 1 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating above $75,000 after its recent rebound to $79,000, as upward momentum has slowed. In this context, on-chain analyst GugaOnChain identified the $65,000-$70,000 range as a key accumulation zone for institutional investors.

The report emphasizes the simultaneous occurrence of three signals, rather than a single indicator, to determine the inflow of institutional funds. The first is STH-SOPR, an indicator of realized profit/loss for short-term holders. If this value falls below 1.0, it is interpreted as a 'capitulation zone' where individual investors who recently bought are selling at a loss, and historically, institutions have repeatedly engaged in low-price accumulation at such times.

The second and third are fund and position flows. The stablecoin supply ratio measures the amount of waiting funds through the volume of USDT flowing into Binance, while CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) simultaneously captures a structure where buying pressure enters the spot market while individual investors increase short positions in the derivatives market. Furthermore, if the 30-day funding rate consistently records negative values in the -0.015% to -0.020% range, it indicates an excessive build-up of short positions, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent short squeeze, according to the analysis.

The report emphasizes that when these three conditions are met simultaneously, market direction tends to show rapid, rather than gradual, changes. It states that a structure is formed where the price surges at once due to the overlap of individual investor capitulation, institutional spot accumulation, and excessive short positions.

The current price trend remains at a critical juncture. Bitcoin is trading around $76,000 and is facing resistance in the $74,000-$76,000 range. This range is a supply zone that has historically turned from support to resistance, and the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are converging in a downtrend, reinforcing upward pressure. Trading volume has also not significantly increased during the rebound, indicating a lack of buying conviction.

Structurally, Bitcoin is trapped in a range between the $64,000 support level and the $76,000 resistance level. While a breakthrough above could lead to a retest of $80,000, a pullback to the lower range could occur if it is pushed back down, so the market remains in the 'institutional accumulation signal confirmation phase'.

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