"June and October will explode again"...Bitcoin, 'midterm election curse' warning

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates around $78,000, it is showing a pattern similar to the repeated bearish trends of past midterm election years, raising concerns about further declines.

On May 2 (local time), crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated in a YouTube video that the current price structure shows high similarity to past cycles. Citing the precedent where Bitcoin formed a peak approximately 1,062 days after its bottom, he suggested the possibility that a major peak may have already formed in Q4 2025.

He particularly emphasized the striking similarity between the bottom formation around $6,000 during the 2018 midterm elections and the process of forming a $60,000 bottom in 2026. Looking at the seasonal patterns of midterm election years, June and October appeared as major bearish periods after February and April, and the possibility of the same pattern repeating this year has been raised.

Cowen analyzed that the high low formed in April might not be a trend reversal but a temporary rebound. The next downward wave could intensify in June, coinciding with seasonal factors, and there is a possibility of continued formation of lower highs in the short term, he stated.

The recent rebound also showed a similar pattern to past trends. It is unfolding similarly to the 2018 trend, where a short-term rise occurred after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and future labor market reports could act as a variable that dampens market sentiment.

If the price fails to rebound, there is a possibility of retesting the $60,000 support level. Cowen emphasized that a recovery above the 50-week moving average is necessary to confirm the end of the downtrend. He stated that the possibility of further decline should be considered below this indicator.

Past cases also showed a recurring pattern of forming a bottom again in October after a rebound until June. With the volatility patterns of midterm election years coinciding with current indicators, the market appears to have entered the same downward phase.

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