New Whales Accumulate 150,000 BTC... Bitcoin, '90,000 Dollars' If It Breaks 82,000 Dollar Wall

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency Whale/AI Generated Image

While Bitcoin (BTC) has held above $80,000, new whales have purchased nearly 150,000 BTC, but long-term whales have remained largely inactive, leading to mixed market interpretations regarding the nature of this rebound.

According to the crypto-specialized media Bitcoinist on May 6 (local time), Bitcoin is maintaining above $80,000 and testing a breakthrough of major resistance levels. The price has recovered 17.5% over the past month, and market sentiment has shifted from fear to cautious optimism. However, cryptocurrency analyst Carmelo Aleman pointed out that there are signals to confirm before judging the quality of this recovery through an analysis of whale behavior.

Aleman's analysis tracked large Bitcoin holders with over 1,000 BTC, dividing them into two groups from April 3 to May 2. New whales were defined as groups with Bitcoin holdings less than 155 days old, categorized as recently introduced capital sensitive to short-term price changes and moving tactically. Existing whales were defined as groups with Bitcoin holdings older than 155 days, categorized as long-term capital less reactive to short-term price changes.

During the same 30-day period, as Bitcoin's price rose by 17.5%, new whales realized a net profit of approximately $865 million. In contrast, existing whales recorded a negative net value of about $87 million. The difference was also clear in their holding balances. New whales' holdings increased from 985,639 BTC to 1,135,400 BTC, adding approximately 149,800 BTC, a growth rate of 15.2%. Existing whales' holdings only increased by 1,200 BTC, from 3,323,800 BTC to 3,325,000 BTC, a change rate of 0.04%.

Aleman explained that new whales are increasing their exposure in a manner similar to spot market participants and acting like tactical investors actively realizing profits. Existing whales remained in long-term holding mode without aggressive accumulation or large-scale distribution. However, Aleman drew a line, stating that these indicators only describe behavior and do not directly measure buying or selling pressure on the order book. He also mentioned existing analyses suggesting that the recent Bitcoin rally was more heavily influenced by futures positioning than by ETF inflows or whale accumulation.

In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is moving around $80,800, continuing its recovery since the sharp decline low in February. Since March, a pattern of higher highs and higher lows has formed, and the 50-day and 100-day moving averages have been recovered, with the $72,000-$74,000 range acting as dynamic support. Conversely, the 200-day moving average continues its downtrend around $82,000-$84,000, creating a key resistance zone.

Bitcoinist assessed that trading volume does not sufficiently confirm the strength of this recovery. While the rebound trend is orderly, participation is lower than during the sell-off phase, suggesting that this rally may be more about easing selling pressure than aggressive new demand. If Bitcoin confirms above $82,000, it could transition to a higher high structure, opening the way towards $90,000. If it fails to break through this zone, a pullback to the $74,000 support level, where buying interest was previously seen, could occur.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*