Is XRP's recovery to $1.40 a trap?...On-chain shows accumulation, charts warn of collapse

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Although XRP has reclaimed $1.40, the market is at a critical juncture with on-chain accumulation signals and chart-based downward pressure appearing simultaneously. While buying pressure is quietly building, the technical structure warns that a bottom has not yet been formed.

Bitcoinist reported on May 5, citing CryptoQuant analysis, that XRP's 100-day taker buy/sell ratio on Binance rose to 0.9766 on May 3. This indicator approaching 1 means that long-term aggressive buying is nearly matching aggressive selling. Bitcoinist interpreted this as a signal of medium-to-long-term accumulation rather than short-term speculative buying.

This trend is gaining more attention in conjunction with price adjustments. XRP has fallen over 60% from its peak of $3.55 in July 2025 to its current level near $1.39. While the price plummeted, the average 100-day buying pressure actually increased. Bitcoinist stated that the accumulation of aggressive buying pressure during a prolonged decline indicates the positioning of participants who are moving ahead of price reactions.

However, charts are sending the opposite warning. XRP is forming a bearish pennant structure above a key support level. This pattern is characterized by narrowing price fluctuations near the bottom after a decline, increasing the risk of continued bearishness given that the previous trend was downward. Furthermore, with a hidden bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), analysis suggests that even if the price appears stable, momentum is weakening.

XRP has recovered $1.40 but has not yet made a decisive breakout. Since the sharp decline in February, the price has been forming a narrow trading range between the $1.30 support level and the $1.45 resistance level. The declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to act as dynamic resistance, preventing recovery attempts. Candlesticks have narrowed, wicks have shortened, and trading volume has decreased compared to the sell-off phase.

The key zone is between $1.45 and $1.50. If XRP breaks through this zone with strong trading volume, it could transition to a higher high structure and open the way to $1.70. Conversely, if it loses $1.30, the current attempt to form a bottom will be invalidated, and it could revert to the $1.10 to $1.20 demand zone. While on-chain data suggests accumulation, charts warn of a long squeeze risk, and XRP remains in a compressed zone, yet to choose a trend.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*