Bitcoin Whales, 80,000 BTC Sale Shock...Up 20% but Hidden Bearishness?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded by more than 20% in a month, derivative positions, whale selling, and Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends indicate that bearish signals are accumulating within the rally.

According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on May 6 (local time), although Bitcoin has risen by more than 20% over the past month, an analysis suggests that the underlying structure of the price movement is closer to bearish than bullish. Short positions increased in the derivatives market, whales engaged in selling during the upward trend, and momentum indicators showed a trend closer to a counter-trend rebound than a new upward trend.

Bitcoin open interest increased from $30.88 billion on April 30 to $34.26 billion on May 6, an increase of over 11% in six trading days. However, the funding rate remained negative, moving from -0.011% on April 30 to -0.006% on May 6. BeInCrypto analyzed that it is rare for the funding rate to remain consistently negative amid a 20% rally, indicating that most of the increased open interest is due to new short positions rather than new long positions.

Strong buying demand was not confirmed in the spot market either. From April 14 to May 6, Bitcoin's price steadily rose on the 8-hour chart, but trading volume continuously decreased. BeInCrypto assessed that this rally is structurally vulnerable as it relies on market distrust and the potential for continued short position liquidations rather than spot demand.

Whale selling trends were also confirmed in on-chain indicators. Small Bitcoin whale wallets holding 1,000 BTC to 10,000 BTC held 4.27 million BTC on April 18 but decreased to 4.19 million BTC on May 6. This represents a decrease of 80,000 BTC over 18 days. BeInCrypto explained that whales are using this rally as a selling opportunity rather than a buying opportunity.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart also added bearish signals. From January 5 to May 5, Bitcoin's price formed lower highs, but the RSI formed higher highs during the same period. BeInCrypto interpreted this as a hidden bearish divergence, stating that the 20% rebound since the February low appears to be a counter-trend rebound within a larger corrective structure. This bearish divergence would be invalidated if Bitcoin surpasses $81,854.

Bitcoin was trading at $81,326 at the time of writing, with immediate resistance levels suggested between $81,810 and $81,854. If the daily closing price surpasses $81,854, the next major technical price level opens up at $90,460. However, if it falls from this level, the Fibonacci 0.236 level of $76,656 would be the first downside test. Below $76,656, $73,467, $70,891, and $68,314 are presented in sequence, and a breakdown of $64,645 would expose the long-term bottom of $59,972.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*