Bitcoin Faces Make-or-Break Test at $84,000... "If it Fails to Clear, It Could Drop to $50,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing the $82,000 level, but a bearish market warning has emerged, suggesting it could fall to $50,000 if it fails to reclaim the $84,000 resistance. The recovery of the 200-day moving average has emerged as a key turning point for the continuation or reversal of this downward cycle.

Cointelegraph reported on May 6, citing analysis from cryptocurrency investment company TradingShot, that Bitcoin is approaching the most critical resistance zone in a bear market. TradingShot explained that Bitcoin is attempting to test its 200-day simple moving average on a 1-day basis, and this zone is the most important resistance in a bearish cycle.

The key price level is $84,000. Cointelegraph stated that according to TradingView data, Bitcoin continues to test the $82,000 area, but it is crucial to reclaim the $84,000 vicinity as support in the next phase. TradingShot compared the current price movement to the 2022 bear market. At that time, Bitcoin retested the 200-day simple moving average from below but failed to recover, subsequently falling to new macro lows.

TradingShot analyzed that Bitcoin has already entered a pivot zone formed from previous lows. This structure is a pattern frequently seen in downtrends, where pivot zones formed from prior lows subsequently acted as resistance. TradingShot stated that if rejected at the current zone, the continuation of Bitcoin's bearish cycle would be confirmed, potentially heading towards $50,000, while a successful breakthrough would invalidate this scenario.

At the bottom, the bull market support band was presented as a key defensive line. This support band consists of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, currently located around $78,000. The trading account Cryptic Trades believes that the broader market structure remains intact as long as the price holds above this zone and the April 2025 bottom formation zone of $76,000.

Cryptic Trades explained that a short-term rejection could occur around $84,000, which is a lost higher-timeframe support zone. While Bitcoin could erase the bear market continuation warning if it recovers $84,000, failure to defend $78,000 and $76,000 would leave the $50,000 downside scenario as a key market risk.

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