Bitcoin, Bear Market Not Over..."Believed in Rebound, Fell to October Low" Warning

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Despite the recent rebound in Bitcoin (BTC), a warning has been issued that the bear market is not over. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, stated that Bitcoin is showing a similar pattern to intermediate rallies during past bear markets, and the current uptrend could form a peak within a few weeks and then decline again.

According to a BeInCrypto report on May 6 (local time), Cowen argued in a recently published video on his YouTube channel that "Bitcoin is showing an upward trend, but it has not yet escaped the bear market." Cowen analyzed that the current trend is following patterns repeated in 2014, 2018, and 2019. At that time, Bitcoin recovered major moving averages in the middle of a bear market before returning to a downtrend.

Cowen said, "I think this trend will likely lead to a rebound that finds a peak within the next few weeks and then returns to those levels." He explained that while Bitcoin has recovered the bull market support band, in past cases, even after exceeding that range, the 200-day moving average acted as resistance, and the decline resumed.

However, Cowen also acknowledged reasons why the bearish view could be wrong. Bitcoin's year-to-date return significantly exceeds the average trend for a midterm election year. Currently, Bitcoin is about 10% below its year-start price, but the typical decline at the same point was between 30% and 35%. Cowen also mentioned Bitcoin's recapture of the bull market support band as a structural change.

Cowen cited a lack of investor enthusiasm as a reason why the current market might be different from the past. He said, "Bitcoin peaked amidst indifference, not euphoria." BeInCrypto reported that the lack of returning interest from retail investors and the continued underperformance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin could make this bear market different from previous ones.

Nevertheless, Cowen believes a defensive stance should be maintained. He pointed out that in 2014, 2018, and 2019, Bitcoin rose above the bull market support band but was then pushed back, with the 200-day moving average acting as resistance. Cowen said, "If I'm right, it will look so obvious. If I'm wrong, by the time enough different movement appears, we will already be quite far from the bottom."

Another signal Cowen focuses on is the time interval between cycle lows. In past recent cycles, it took approximately 140 to 174 days for a new low to emerge. Cowen explained that the current period is on day 88, asking, "Who knows what will happen over the next three months?"

Cowen suggested that the current rebound could form a peak within a few weeks and then revert towards the bull market support band, also leaving open the possibility of an October low. Regarding investors who realized Bitcoin profits in the Q4 market last year when $300,000 forecasts were rampant, he said, "Those who realized Bitcoin profits in Q4 when others were shouting $300,000 are still in good shape."

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