Bitcoin, May to close lower?..."If bear flag breaks, June could see sharp decline"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) / ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trend in May. However, some technical analysts are warning of a potential monthly close lower. Amid analyses suggesting that the recent rebound might be a bear flag preceding a continued downtrend rather than a trend reversal, the 200-day moving average has emerged as a key turning point.

According to crypto-specialized media NewsBTC on May 6 (local time), crypto analyst Leshka stated in a technical analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin is likely to close May with a decline. Leshka analyzed that although Bitcoin is rebounding within an ascending channel on the daily chart, this structure could be interpreted as a bear flag, indicating a temporary rebound within a downtrend.

After a sharp drop in February, Bitcoin recovered from the $60,000 range to the $80,000 range, showing a trend of higher highs and higher lows. While it superficially appears that the recovery is strengthening, Leshka believes that this ascending channel could be a pattern formed during a limited rebound after a strong decline. A bear flag refers to a structure where, after a significant drop, the price forms a gentle ascending channel, then breaks below the channel's lower boundary, leading to further declines.

The most crucial price level in this analysis is around $82,000, where the 200-day moving average is located. NewsBTC reported that Bitcoin is approaching a resistance zone where the upper boundary of the recent ascending channel and the 200-day moving average converge. Bitcoin has not successfully closed above the 200-day moving average on a daily basis for seven months, and this area has been identified as a key benchmark distinguishing a mere rebound from a trend reversal.

According to Leshka's bearish scenario, Bitcoin could make a final attempt to rise in the resistance zone before reversing its direction. If it then breaks out of the ascending channel, there's a possibility of a decline to the $58,000 to $56,000 range by June. However, this analysis is a technical scenario predicated on price action around the 200-day moving average.

Bitcoin's performance in May is also facing a significant test when compared to historical statistics. According to NewsBTC, Bitcoin has historically recorded an average May return of 18.7% and a median of 8.32%, with increases of 11.1% in both May 2024 and May 2025. Conversely, it fell by 35.4% in May 2021, 15.9% in May 2022, and 7.10% in May 2023. If Bitcoin fails to break above the upper boundary of the ascending channel as Leshka analyzed, May 2026 could also be categorized as a bearish close.

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