Ethereum 65% · Solana 100% Vulnerable... Quantum Shock Coming in 2030?

▲ Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH)

An analysis has emerged suggesting that Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are significantly exposed to future quantum computer threats. Project Eleven's 2026 report pointed out that approximately 65% of Ethereum and 100% of Solana have address structures vulnerable to quantum computer attacks.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet BeInCrypto on May 7 (local time), Project Eleven analyzed the quantum computer vulnerabilities of Ethereum and Solana, respectively, in its latest report. The report identified three key cryptographic technologies in Ethereum that could be exposed to quantum threats: the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used to protect user accounts, the Boneh-Lynn-Shacham (BLS) signature used in Proof-of-Stake consensus, and KZG commitments for blob data introduced with EIP-4844.

In particular, the issue was raised that network consensus stability could be shaken if validator BLS keys are recovered by an attacker. The report analyzed that if a quantum attacker obtains validator BLS keys, they could create forged proofs, destabilize consensus, and trigger large-scale slashing. It was also explained that validator BLS keys are publicly exposed from the time of 32 ETH deposit.

Solana's vulnerability was identified as a structural issue. Due to Solana's Ed25519 design, each wallet's public key is directly included in the on-chain address. BeInCrypto reported that, unlike Bitcoin (BTC)'s unspent transaction output (UTXO) model, which provides some buffer by hiding unused keys that have not yet been made public, all Solana addresses are inherently vulnerable to quantum computers by design.

However, both major networks are preparing a response. Ethereum Foundation developers launched the Post-Quantum Ethereum website in March 2026. The team projected that the Layer 1 protocol upgrade could be completed by 2029, with a full migration of the execution layer potentially extending beyond that.

The Solana camp is also developing countermeasures against quantum computers. Anza and Firedancer, the developers of Solana validator clients, independently chose Falcon in April. Falcon is a post-quantum signature scheme approved by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The Solana Foundation stated that migration work is sufficiently researched and prepared to be implemented if quantum computers emerge as a real threat.

Project Eleven presented three "Q-Day" scenarios, which are the points in time when quantum computers pose a real threat to existing cryptographic systems. The optimistic scenario is 2030, the moderate scenario is 2033, and the pessimistic scenario is 2042. However, the report explained that these forecasts are based on the assumption of gradual annual technological improvements and no major breakthroughs.

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