Cold water on Bitcoin bottom theory... "It's all narrative until $88,880 is reclaimed"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has strongly rebounded since its February low, an analysis suggests that there is still insufficient decisive evidence to support claims that the market bottom has already been confirmed. CryptoQuant certified analyst IT Tech pointed out that it is difficult to accept the bottom theory as data until Bitcoin recovers and holds $88,880.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet The Crypto Basic on May 7 (local time), IT Tech analyzed that while many traders are recently declaring a Bitcoin bottom, on-chain data still indicates strong selling resistance zones. He believes that there is still upward pressure on Bitcoin as holders in loss might attempt to exit at their break-even price. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $80,870.

Those who support the Bitcoin bottom theory consider the $60,000 range in February as the low for this cycle. The decline at that time represented a 52.5% drop from the all-time high of $126,200. Since then, Bitcoin has not created further lows and has rebounded by more than 37%. This trend has strengthened market observers' claims of a confirmed bottom.

However, IT Tech explained that there are three major realized price resistance levels above Bitcoin. The realized price for holders of 3 to 6 months is $88,880, for holders of 12 to 18 months is $93,450, and for holders of 6 to 12 months is $111,850. These price levels represent the average purchase price for holders who bought during each period, and if the price approaches these zones, investors currently in loss might sell at their break-even point.

The key benchmark is $88,880. IT Tech emphasized that Bitcoin should not merely touch this price but must decisively break through it and maintain it as support. Reclaiming $88,880 could turn the recent group of holders in loss into profit, thereby reducing short-term selling pressure. Conversely, if this condition is not met, the rally in the $85,000 to $88,000 range could be blocked by selling pressure from buyers who entered late between November 2025 and February 2026.

IT Tech firmly stated that market structure and holder data are more important than bottom declarations based on investor sentiment. He said, “A bottom declaration is a narrative. Reclaiming and holding $88,880 is data.” Although the Fear & Greed Index rose from 5 in February to a neutral 47, showing a recovery in market sentiment, The Crypto Basic reported that whether $88,880 is reclaimed remains the key confirmation point for the Bitcoin bottom theory.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*