"60% of Holders Clustered at $1.45"...XRP's Breakout Past $1.50 Halted by a Cruel Supply Wall

▲ XRP/AI-generated image

XRP is failing to gain significant momentum despite Bitcoin (BTC)'s rebound. An analysis suggests that even if Bitcoin breaks past the $85,000 resistance, XRP must first overcome a large supply wall clustered around $1.45 to stably break past $1.50.

According to 24/7 Wall St. on May 7, XRP has been stuck between $1.30 and $1.45 since February. Specifically, $1.45 has acted as a key resistance level, preventing multiple breakout attempts. Bitcoin faced resistance near its 200-day moving average of $82,228, and it was analyzed that it needed to overcome this moving average before testing the $85,000 resistance.

XRP's ability to follow Bitcoin's movements has also been limited. On May 4, Bitcoin surged by about 4% in a single day, breaking $80,000 for the first time since January, but XRP only rose by about 2%, from $1.38 to $1.40, during the same period. In the recent 30-day trend, Bitcoin increased by about 19% while XRP increased by about 7%. 24/7 Wall St. analyzed that Bitcoin's growth rate was approximately three times that of XRP.

Applying this trend, if Bitcoin rises from around $81,000 to $85,000, the upward potential for XRP is estimated to be around 2-3%. In this scenario, XRP could rise to around $1.45-$1.46, but it would fall short of settling at $1.50. This means that Bitcoin's rebound alone is unlikely to break through XRP's upper resistance.

The biggest hurdle is the $1.45 supply wall. According to Glassnode data, approximately 60% of XRP holders bought at an average of $1.44 to $1.45. It is explained that as wallets that had been in a loss-making position for several months started selling near their break-even point, XRP's upward momentum was thwarted whenever it approached $1.44.

The same pattern repeated with past positive news. On March 17, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classified XRP as a digital commodity, XRP surged to $1.60. However, it retreated below $1.45 by the end of the week. On April 17, when Rakuten added XRP payment support for its 44 million users in Japan, XRP also surpassed $1.50 but fell below $1.45 a few days later.

24/7 Wall St. projected that if Bitcoin breaks $85,000 and the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill is reviewed before May 21, XRP could surpass $1.50 and rise to $1.65-$1.70. Conversely, if Bitcoin surpasses $85,000 but the bill review is delayed, XRP might briefly touch $1.50 before being pushed back into the $1.40-$1.45 range.

If Bitcoin fails to break $85,000, XRP could retest the $1.35 support level. 24/7 Wall St. pointed out that for XRP to break $1.50, it needs not only Bitcoin's rebound but also additional buying pressure to absorb the supply accumulated above $1.45. XRP's short-term direction is expected to depend on whether Bitcoin breaks $85,000 and the schedule of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*