Bitcoin could fall to $75,000 if 'this' breaks..."Long position investors in emergency"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a short-term correction warning after a recent 36% rebound. As the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key indicator of price strength, has risen to its highest level in approximately 15 weeks, the market is focusing on whether the $78,000 support level will be breached.

According to Cointelegraph on May 8, Bitcoin rose from a macro low of $60,000 to $82,800 on Wednesday. During this process, the daily RSI climbed from 39 at the local low in March to 70 on Wednesday. An RSI of 70 is generally considered an overbought threshold, and entering this range after a strong rally increases the likelihood of a short-term correction.

Trader Jelle stated via X (formerly Twitter), “The timing of Bitcoin’s daily RSI entering the overbought zone coincided with it touching the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).” He added, “It's natural to find resistance here.” Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin is confirming resistance near the 200-day EMA.

Analyst Crypto Tice explained that this signal is rare, having appeared only four times in the past year. He noted that a short-term pullback followed each time this signal appeared, stating, “A daily overbought state is not resolved by consolidation. It is resolved by a shakeout.” Another analyst, Rekt Fencer, pointed out that Bitcoin fell by 35% to 38% after the same signal appeared twice recently.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric also added to the overheating warnings. Analyst FrankAFetter revealed that this is the first time since November 2024 that Bitcoin has risen above the overheated level of the Bollinger Bands for short-term holders. The original text stated that Bitcoin's price fell by 15% after reaching similar levels at that time.

The key support level is $78,000. Jelle explained that the 200-day EMA at $83,000 is acting as resistance, and the first major area of interest is $78,000. He said, “If this area turns into support, we can challenge the moving average again.”

Tradermayne also believes that maintaining the $78,000 to $80,000 support level in the short-term timeframe could be a clear benchmark for bulls. Another analyst, Master of Crypto, analyzed that Bitcoin is holding the support zone of $78,500 to $79,100, and if buyers defend this zone, the next move could be towards $82,000 to $83,000 where a lot of liquidity has accumulated. However, he warned that if this support level breaks, Bitcoin could quickly fall to $75,000 to $76,000.

The liquidation map also supports the importance of $78,000. According to CoinGlass data, if Bitcoin corrects below $78,000, it could trigger the liquidation of over $3.1 billion in leveraged long positions across all exchanges. With overbought indicators, 200-day EMA resistance, and the $78,000 support level converging simultaneously, Bitcoin’s short-term rally is facing a significant test.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*