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▲ Dogecoin (DOGE)
Dogecoin (DOGE) has risen by approximately 14% over the past month, but an analysis suggests it is still too early to consider this a full-fledged resumption of a bull market. While meme coin investment sentiment has partially revived in the market, major resistance levels and the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) are considered key variables that will determine Dogecoin's next direction.
According to the cryptocurrency specialized media outlet Benzinga on May 8, crypto analyst Kevin diagnosed Dogecoin's recent rebound as closer to a counter-trend rally within an uncertain market structure rather than an entry into a long-term bull market. He believes Dogecoin needs to break through key resistance zones to confirm a complete upward reversal.
The first resistance zone identified by Kevin is between $0.117 and $0.125. This zone includes key Fibonacci price levels, the 200-day exponential moving average, and the 200-day simple moving average on a daily basis. A stronger resistance zone lies between $0.136 and $0.159. If Dogecoin fails to break through this zone, the recent rise is likely to be interpreted as a recovery bounce.
Technical indicators showed mixed signals in the short term. Kevin assessed that momentum and capital flow indicators have significantly improved. However, he warned that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought zone, increasing the risk of a short-term correction. He stated that he bought Dogecoin around $0.09 and is currently up about 26%, planning to accumulate more if the price shows a retracement.
It was also diagnosed that Dogecoin's long-term trend is still tied to Bitcoin. Kevin explained that Dogecoin and most altcoins generally follow Bitcoin's trend. He said that for Dogecoin itself to turn bullish, one must check Bitcoin's price structure, USDT market dominance, and the relative strength of the Dogecoin-Bitcoin trading pair.
The explanation is that Dogecoin's long-term breakout potential will increase only if Bitcoin recovers the $95,000 to $100,000 range, reconfirms that range as support, and continues its upward trend. Until these conditions are met, Kevin views Dogecoin's current movement not as a confirmed signal of a sustainable bull cycle, but as a recovery bounce.
Speculative interest in the meme coin market appears to be reviving. Benzinga reported that Dogecoin continues to attract attention amid the recovery of meme coin momentum. Dogecoin spot ETFs recorded approximately $627,300 in inflows on May 5th and May 6th, and Santiment data showed that Dogecoin whale activity reached its highest level in six months.
Dogecoin's 14% rise over one month is evaluated as a sign of renewed interest in the meme coin market. However, if it fails to break through the resistance levels ranging from $0.117 to $0.125, and from $0.136 to $0.159, and Bitcoin fails to recover the $95,000 to $100,000 range, there remains a possibility that this rally will be limited to a short-term bounce.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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