Bitcoin Whales Quietly Sold 30,000 BTC in a Distributed Manner... Have Peak Signals Already Passed?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Whale / AI Generated Image

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC)'s previous market peak was not formed by clear crash signals but rather by sophisticated, distributed selling by large holders. It explained that at a time when bullish conviction dominated the market, whale wallets quietly moved their holdings to exchanges, and this flow appeared like normal trading activity, bypassing investors' vigilance.

NewsBTC reported on May 14 (local time), citing an analysis by ForeDex, that last year's Bitcoin market peak did not appear as an overt mass selling signal like in past cycles. ForeDex explained that while market participants were engrossed in optimism and strong conviction, a whale moved approximately 30,000 BTC to exchanges via Galaxy Digital over 10 days, but most investors did not grasp the significance of this fund flow.

According to ForeDex, in past market peaks, large volumes ranging from several thousand BTC to 10,000 BTC flowed into major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Gemini as single transactions, making them relatively easy to detect. However, after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the market structure and trading methods became more sophisticated, leading to large volumes being divided and distributed across multiple exchanges and in smaller units. During this process, the reliability of existing indicators, such as exchange-specific selling premiums and price differences between Coinbase and Binance, was also evaluated to have decreased.

Regarding Bitcoin's short-term movements, signs of weakening have also emerged. Cryptocurrency analyst Kaz diagnosed that Bitcoin is forming lower highs after being pushed back from the $82,000 resistance level, and while open interest is rapidly increasing, perpetual futures and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) are declining. He observed that bullish position investors have already begun to be pushed out of the market, and remaining long liquidation volumes on the downside could act as additional downward pressure.

Kaz explained that Bitcoin is currently retesting the $80,000 level, and the strongest bearish positioning based on open interest is confirmed in this range. He analyzed that if Bitcoin holds $80,000 and the Cumulative Volume Delta turns bullish, a short squeeze towards the $82,000 resistance level could occur. Conversely, if $80,000 breaks and internal supply-demand weakness continues, a downward trend sweeping low liquidity could emerge, potentially leading to a retest of weak order zones.

According to the report, Bitcoin was trading at $80,668 on the daily chart at the time of writing. This analysis focused on how whale's distributed selling in the Bitcoin market has evolved to be more difficult to identify than in the past, and how short-term derivatives indicators are also increasing bearish pressure.

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