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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) is failing to enter a strong breakout phase above $80,000. Cointelegraph reported on May 14 (local time) that capital inflows into the Bitcoin market remain lower than in previous bull market breakout phases, and futures market investors are also showing caution.
According to Glassnode's weekly on-chain report, Bitcoin's 30-day realized cap net position change recently rose to $2.8 billion per month. This metric tracks the amount of new capital flowing into the Bitcoin market over a 30-day period.
Positive capital flows helped Bitcoin recover from its April low near $65,000. However, compared to previous breakout phases seen during the bull run from 2023 to 2025, the scale of capital turnover was much smaller. Cointelegraph stated that with the slowing pace of capital entering the market this year, questions have grown about whether Bitcoin can rise above the $80,000-$82,000 range.
Overhead supply pressure was also presented as a variable. Glassnode analyzed that a large cluster of holders is forming around $86,900. These are investors who bought Bitcoin between November last year and February this year, and they are currently nearing their break-even point. If investors who have experienced long-term losses decide to sell near their entry price, a large overhead supply zone could form, hindering Bitcoin's upward momentum.
Conversely, short-term buyers are supporting the market around $76,900. This price point represents the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin purchased over the past 30 days. This indicates that while overhead supply is concentrated near $87,000, new demand is still flowing in at lower price levels.
Strong bullish bets have not yet been confirmed in the futures market either. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. analyzed that buying activity in the spot and futures markets began to cool after Bitcoin recently rose above $80,000. The 30-day net taker volume metric rose to +2.0 on May 6 but fell to +1.25 on Wednesday. This metric shows which side, buyers or sellers, is dominating the market.
Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's buying pressure has decreased by about 35% compared to last week. This means that investors are acting less aggressively than before while Bitcoin trades around $80,000. He explained that in the past, when this indicator adjusted to around +0.3, price movements often slowed down or consolidated.
The 30-day Bitcoin funding rate has also remained in negative territory since March. A negative funding rate means that short-position investors are paying long-position investors, which is interpreted as a sign that bearish bets still dominate the futures market. Adler Jr. believes that a trend of the funding rate rising back above 0 could be the first sign of a recovery in bullish positions.
Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also diagnosed that capital flows need to strengthen for Bitcoin to enter a larger bull market. Wedson explained that the realized cap impulse metric, which tracks whether new capital is entering the Bitcoin market, is still slightly below 0. He analyzed that this metric needs to rise back above 0 to signal that investors are injecting new capital into Bitcoin.
Although Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 range, the scale of capital inflows and futures market positions are not yet sufficient to support a strong breakout. Cointelegraph reported that further upside above the $80,000-$82,000 range would require an expansion of new capital inflows and a recovery of bullish positions in the futures market.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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