Benjamin Cowen: "Bitcoin at $1 Million, Difficult Even in the Next Cycle"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Regarding why Bitcoin (BTC) is not soaring to explosive highs as it did in the past, an asymmetrical price structure where the lower support line rises but the upper overheating zone lowers has been identified as a key variable.

On May 30 (local time), crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel that the core of Bitcoin's price model should be found in the difference in curvature between the upper and lower ranges. Cowen compared the Rainbow Chart, Power Law model, Stock-to-Flow, and Quantile models, explaining that while existing models relatively well explained the lower structural support line, they failed to adequately reflect the upper overheating zone, which weakens over time.

Cowen prefaced by saying, “All models are wrong, but some are useful,” and pointed out the limitations of treating the lower and upper tails of Bitcoin's price with the same curve. He analyzed that while the existing Power Law model remains useful for the lower range, the upper range should be viewed with a separate curvature where the intensity of euphoria weakens with each repeating cycle. He argued that in the past, the gap between lows and highs was large, but over time, as the lower support line rose and the upper overheating zone lowered, the two price ranges are gradually converging.

Cowen explained that Bitcoin is currently around the 9.4% quantile, and historically, the time spent below the current quantile is only about 9%. The 1% quantile was suggested to be around $62,000, but he emphasized that this price is not an absolute support line. He analyzed that if it drops to the quantile during the 2022 bear market, it would be $57,000 to $58,000 based on current standards; if it drops to the quantile during the 2020 pandemic crash, it would be $51,000 to $52,000; and if it drops to a quantile similar to the double bottom period in 2015, it would be $48,000 to $49,000.

Cowen attributed Bitcoin's failure to reach the 95% to 99% quantile in recent cycles to the absence of an altcoin season. He explained that in both 2019 and 2025, Bitcoin formed a peak around the 75% quantile, and in both periods, Bitcoin's peak occurred about two months before the end of quantitative tightening. Cowen assessed that if Bitcoin fails to reach extreme euphoria, it is difficult for funds to strongly rotate into altcoins, and in the recent market, monetary policy and the lowered upper overheating zone have limited the rotation.

Even in his long-term price forecast, Cowen drew a line against excessive optimism. He presented the timing for Bitcoin to reach $1 million as 2041 based on the 1% quantile, 2036 based on the 50% quantile, and the earliest even based on the 99% quantile as 2035. Cowen explained that the new model is not a perfect tool to replace existing models but an additional framework that mathematically shows the asymmetry between the top and bottom, concluding that even if a late-cycle downturn continues in a midterm election year, a price range that can be interpreted as a long-term accumulation zone from past cycles could form.

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