Disappeared from the exchange...Why isn't XRP's price soaring?

▲ XRP

More than $11 billion worth of XRP has exited the Binance exchange, intensifying an unprecedented supply shortage, yet leverage-based investments, which could drive market price increases, remain in a slump.

Cryptocurrency specialized media The Crypto Basic reported on April 9 (local time) that the cumulative net outflow of XRP from Binance has reached $11.23 billion, signaling the highest level of supply crunch ever. This report, citing data from a virtual asset analysis platform, suggests that while exchange balances are continuously decreasing, speculative demand to absorb this is yet to recover. Cumulative net outflow is an indicator that investors have moved assets stored on exchanges to personal wallets or long-term custodial services, typically meaning reduced selling pressure in the market.

Tracking XRP Ledger-based asset flows revealed that Binance's XRP holdings have been on a downward trend for several months, reaching their lowest level since 2024. This is interpreted as a result of institutional investors aggressively absorbing the circulating supply in the market after the approval of spot XRP ETFs. While a decrease in exchange supply can create an environment where prices react sensitively even to small buying pressure, the current market continues to trade sideways despite the potential for such a supply shock.

The biggest reason cited is the lack of leverage in the futures market. In past bull markets, XRP's open interest sometimes exceeded $10 billion, but currently, it is stagnant around $2.4 billion, which is about 20% of that level. Without aggressive position building using leverage, a bottleneck is occurring where the robust supply and demand structure in the spot market cannot lead to a price surge. Individual investors' sentiment index also remains below neutral, indicating a lack of market vitality.

Institutional investor participation, however, is expanding. Recently, continuous capital inflows through spot XRP ETFs from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity have been observed, supporting the notion that a significant portion of the $11.23 billion that left exchanges is institutional long-term holdings. Experts diagnose that the true price breakout period for XRP will be when leverage-based investment officially resumes and open interest surpasses the $4 billion mark.

The XRP market is currently in an unusual phase where supply has decreased, and the quality of demand has improved, but there is a lack of speculative energy to create explosive volatility. With supply shortage indicators hitting new highs in 2026, there are also warnings that prices could surge uncontrollably if positive external news emerges in the future. Investors are closely monitoring Binance's net inflow transition and the trend of trading volume in the futures market, searching for the starting point of the next rally.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*