Bitcoin, even $40,000 could collapse..."The real opportunity comes in October"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Decline / ChatGPT Generated Image

Warnings have emerged that further sharp drops will follow, based on the fact that key on-chain indicators for Bitcoin (BTC) suggest a true bottom has not yet arrived.

Veteran trader Benjamin Cowen, in an interview with crypto YouTube channel Altcoin Daily on April 10 (local time), analyzed Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and realized price, concluding that there is still significant room for decline. Historically, Bitcoin's bottom has always formed when the price fell below its realized price of $54,000 and its balance price of $39,000. Cowen analyzed that although Bitcoin's price currently maintains the $70,000 level, indicators suggest that it needs to drop to around $40,000, representing approximately a 70% decline from its peak, for all energy to be completely reset.

The current global economy has entered the late stage of a typical business cycle, which poses a significant threat to asset markets. A sharp weakening of the labor market and rising oil prices are precursors to a recession, exerting strong downward pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Cowen explained, "We are currently in a cooling-off digestion phase, and we cannot rule out the possibility of a recession caused by factors other than the pandemic."

In the late stage of the business cycle, a clear reverse rotation occurs where funds move from high-risk assets to low-risk assets. As investors shift assets from altcoins to Bitcoin, and then from Bitcoin to safe-haven assets like gold, overall market liquidity tends to dry up. In such an environment, an "alt season," where funds circulate from Bitcoin's rise to altcoins, is very unlikely to occur.

Bitcoin dominance, excluding stablecoins, continues its upward trend, absorbing funds from the altcoin market. Major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have seen their value continuously decline against Bitcoin since the second half of 2025, losing their independent upward momentum. Cowen assessed that due to a lack of liquidity, most altcoins are failing to match Bitcoin's price resilience and are only widening their losses in a cruel market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*