Hormuz Strait, from bad to worse... International oil prices rise above $100 again, gold and Bitcoin fall

Tankers and cargo ships waiting near the Strait of Hormuz

International oil prices have once again surpassed $100 per barrel as the United States announced a counter-blockade in response to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Bloomberg, Brent crude futures, which serve as a benchmark for international oil prices, were trading at $103.44 per barrel as of 9:12 AM KST on the 13th, up approximately 8.7% from the previous trading day's (10th) closing price.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude futures also surged by approximately 8.7% from the previous day to $104.93 at the same time.

On the 12th (local time), after the first peace talks with the Iranian government failed, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would initiate blockade procedures for all vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz. This is interpreted as an intention to exert maximum pressure by blocking the export of Iranian oil, which serves as a source of war funds for the Iranian authorities.

U.S. President Donald Trump

It is also suggested that the U.S. intends to neutralize Iran's "Hormuz card," which Iran has used as a negotiating leverage, through a counter-blockade and seize control of the strait. The Strait of Hormuz, at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, is a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil passes. Since the outbreak of the Iran War, shipping operations have virtually ceased, leading to a global energy supply crisis.

The U.S. naval blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time on the 13th (11 PM KST on the 13th).

Mona Yacoubian, Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), commented in an interview with Bloomberg, "This blockade is a very ambitious attempt, but it cannot be a fundamental solution to the problem of supply disruption. It's a difficult decision to understand."

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) predicted in a recent report that "the U.S. blockade measures will not only curb exports from oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf but also limit Iran's oil export capacity," adding, "This will exacerbate the supply chain disruption problems currently experienced by the market."

U.S. oil price billboard

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, is drawing attention as an alternative shipping route.

As major oil producer Saudi Arabia recently normalized the operation of the 'East-West Pipeline' connected to its Red Sea ports, there is considerable expectation that increasing crude oil exports via this sea route could alleviate energy supply shortages.

However, as the entrance to the Red Sea is controlled by the Houthi rebels, an pro-Iranian insurgent group in Yemen, concerns are growing that Iran could pressure the Houthis to carry out attacks on ships in the Red Sea in retaliation for the U.S. naval blockade.

CSIS Director Yacoubian stated, "If that actually happens, a 'world of pain' will truly unfold. Based on past examples, Iran will not easily surrender and will retaliate, which is a tactic we have repeatedly witnessed."

France's fuel storage facility

The escalating tensions also led to a sharp rise in natural gas prices in Europe.

According to Bloomberg, the Dutch TTF futures price, which serves as a benchmark for Europe's gas market, surged by up to 18% from the previous session to 51.30 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). As of 6:25 AM Singapore time on the 13th, it is trading at 49.45 euros.

Due to increased market volatility, the daily trading hours for this product were changed from the previous 10 hours to 21 hours as of the 13th.

Gold, a safe-haven asset, showed a downward trend as inflation risks increased amid signs of a prolonged war.

International spot gold prices were trading at $4,669.80 per ounce as of 9:10 AM KST on the 13th, down approximately 1.7% from the previous session's closing price.

The price of Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, also dropped from around $73,000 to around $71,000.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's price traded between a high of $73,154.03 and a low of $70,540.57 over the past 24 hours.