Bitcoin bottom, already spotted? New high rally resumes if 'this' is defended

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) is eyeing an opportunity for a new rebound by forming a bottom, having defended the historical support level of $69,000 amidst selling pressure from short-term holders.

According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 12 (local time), Bitcoin is currently at a critical inflection point between long-term on-chain support and strong overhead resistance. Analysts have defined $69,000, the all-time high of the 2021 bull market, as the decisive boundary that will determine the market's direction. If Bitcoin maintains this price on a weekly closing basis, it can regain upward momentum, but if it breaks below it, further decline is inevitable.

On-chain data shows that the market has entered a historically observed stress zone. The realized price, which is the average acquisition cost of all coins in the network, is formed at $54,000, serving as a strong psychological floor for the market. The average purchase price for short-term holders who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days recently is around $82,000, significantly higher than the current price, indicating that most investors are experiencing unrealized losses.

Technical indicators suggest that the downtrend is subsiding and a gradual recovery phase is beginning. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of oversold territory and is hovering in the neutral zone between 40 and 50, indicating that fear-driven selling has calmed down. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also forming a bullish crossover above the zero line, sending cautious rebound signals. In past cycles, a full bottom was established when the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio reached a certain level after short-term holders capitulated.

If the $69,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin will test support in the $65,000 range, which was the February low. If even that point is breached, the downside could open up to the ultimate floor price of $54,000, requiring investor caution. However, the current accumulation activities by institutions through Bitcoin spot ETFs and the stable holding of long-term holders are strong pillars limiting the market's downside.

Bitcoin is currently engaged in an intense supply-demand battle between short-term correction and long-term value re-evaluation. The structural robustness of maintaining value above the realized price is a key factor supporting the market's long-term confidence. The stable defense of the $69,000 level and the bullish reversal of technical indicators will be major gauges in determining Bitcoin's future direction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*