Short Sellers Endure for 46 Days, When Will Bitcoin's Historic Short Squeeze Explode?

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Amidst significant fundamental shifts, such as Goldman Sachs' entry into the spot ETF market and Iran's adoption of Bitcoin as a geopolitical payment method, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is signaling an unprecedented short squeeze (buying pressure that occurs to close or cover short positions) explosion, aiming squarely at the formidable $76,000 resistance level.

According to investment media TradingNews on April 16 (local time), Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,826 and is attempting to break through an ironclad triple resistance zone formed between $75,000 and $76,132. This zone is where the average cost of short-term holders (1-3 months) based on UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) data stands at $76,662, leading to a flood of break-even selling. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs has applied for a 'Bitcoin Premium Income ETF' using a covered call strategy, which profits by limiting Bitcoin's upside, adding to Wall Street's organized upward suppression.

However, the derivatives market's interior is like boiling lava. Negative funding rates have persisted for an astonishing 46 consecutive days, indicating that short sellers are enduring massive cost losses. This phenomenon precisely matches what was observed at the bottom of the bear market in late 2022. If the key technical rebound level of $76,132 (the neckline of the cup and handle pattern) is breached, it would trigger a cascade of forced liquidations, leading to a powerful short squeeze that would propel the price vertically, indicating that significant fuel is loaded.

On the geopolitical stage, Bitcoin's status has completely changed. With Iran demanding a $1 per barrel Bitcoin toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, approximately $20 million worth of Bitcoin daily is being directly injected into the real economy as payment for oil. As its value as a neutral payment method to circumvent U.S. sanctions has been proven, Bitcoin is being re-evaluated not merely as a risky asset but as a global geopolitical weapon, establishing a structural price support level.

Macroeconomic cycle analysts unanimously point to the beginning of a bull market. Three entirely independent analytical techniques—past cycle high duration, days elapsed since halving, and on-chain models—all pinpoint October 2026 as the true bottom of this bear market. This suggests that the current $74,000 range is not a period of extreme euphoria but an opportunity for long-term accumulation quietly building amidst public indifference.

Beneath the surface, massive accumulation is already underway. Tether, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, recently added an additional $70 million worth of Bitcoin to its reserves, demonstrating strong downside support. As long as $64,900 is not breached in the short term, the technical upward structure remains valid. If $76,132 is broken, an unstoppable surge is expected, first to $82,133 and then to $87,339, where the 200-day moving average is located.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*