Veteran Analyst: "Bitcoin, now ignoring the 4-year cycle theory and surging ahead"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT generated image

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a new market phase, moving beyond its historical 4-year cycle theory, now driven by institutional demand and macroeconomic liquidity.

According to NewsBTC on April 23 (local time), Matt Crosby, Senior Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, diagnosed that the traditional Bitcoin cycles traders rely on may no longer be relevant to the market. Crosby stated, "Currently, over 20 million BTC have been issued, with more than 95% of the total supply already in circulation," and "the impact of halving on the market has decreased compared to the past."

Crosby criticized investment strategies that adhere to past patterns and wait for opportune times to buy at lows. He emphasized that large-scale buyers, such as Strategy, are accumulating over 1,000 BTC daily, a volume equivalent to 2-3 times Bitcoin's daily issuance. He also analyzed that institutional demand, on a different scale from previous cycles, is changing the market structure, with approximately $750 million worth of funds flowing in daily through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The core of the analysis lies in the correlation with global liquidity rather than dollar-denominated prices. Crosby diagnosed that liquidity expansion and contraction are the dominant factors in price fluctuations, based on the high correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 liquidity. He particularly presented the possibility that Bitcoin, when compared to the value of gold, might have already peaked by the end of 2024 and undergone a relative bear market for over a year, offering this as evidence that the existing 4-year cycle theory is collapsing.

On-chain indicators also suggest that Bitcoin has entered an undervalued zone. Crosby noted that key metrics, such as Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed, accurately identified historical highs and accumulation zones in the past, and evaluated that Bitcoin has recently re-entered an attractive range. Concurrently, he cited improving manufacturing outlook and liquidity conditions as positive signals, despite the US consumer sentiment index hitting an all-time low in April.

The virtual asset market has now entered a phase where its direction is determined not by simple calendar dates, but by actual fund flows and institutional positioning. Senior Analyst Crosby advised that the breakdown of the 4-year cycle is inevitable and that attention should be paid to the new liquidity entering the system. Investors are moving away from past formulas and focusing on understanding the core dynamics of the changed market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*